InAmerica,thegovernmentsrequesttoCongressforafreshfiscalboostlookslikeatacitadmissionthattheeconomyisalreadylosingthrustasstimulusfromtheoriginalpackagefades,saysAmbroseEvans-PritchardinTheDailyTelegraph。

Theleadingindicatorsarerollingover,lendingcontinuestofallandtherenewedcrisisinthehousingmarket(seeright)isnotonlymorebadnewsforbanks,butalsobodesillforconsumerconfidenceandconsumption。

ThrowintheworseningfiscalsqueezeacrosstheWestanditseasytoseewhyglobalgrowthissettodisappointordoubledip。

ButequitymarketsstillseemtobeexpectingaV-shapedbounce。

ConsensusexpectationsforboththeMSCIDevelopedWorldindexandAmericasSP500areforaround60%earningsgrowthbetween2009and2011。

Thislookswaytoohighevenwithoutadoubledip,saysaCharlesStanleynote。

SPearningsareexpectedtoreachanewpeaknextyear。

Sothereisplentyofscopefornastysurprises–especiallysincetheSP500,whichsetsthetoneforworldmarkets,isstillhistoricallyexpensive。

Roubiniseesariskoftheindexslidingby20%astheglobalmacroeconomicbackdropdeteriorates。

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