Iamnotgoingtogointomyfundamentalviewonthestockhere(recentthoughtshere,herehere)butIhavebeenfairlyconsistentthatthecompanydoesnothaveafutureasastandalonebut,withitsverystrongbalancesheet(36%ofthemarketcapincashnodebt),70plusmillionusersandstabilizingservicerevenues,thecompanycouldbeaveryattractivetake-overcandidate?

Ihavealsobeenveryconsistentinsuggestingthatthesumofthepartsismuchlessattractiveinthemidtohighteens,butshouldseesignificantvaluationsupportinthe$10-$12range。

Whichbringsmetotheoneyearchartbelow?

Inthelast2weeks,thestockhasbrokentheuptrendthathasbeenintactfromthemulti-yearlowsmadeinSeptandsincemakinga52weekhighinJan,thestockhasmadeaseriesoflowerhighsandlowerlowsandjustrecentlybroken3monthsupport。

BBRY1yrchartfromBloomberg

Fromasentimentstandpoint,itcouldntgetmuchworse,WallStreetanalystshavealmostwholeheartedlyputaforkinthisonewithonly8Buys,12Holdsand22Sellsandanavg12monthpricetargetof$12。

83(6%lowerthanyesterdaysclose。

ThenextidentifiablecatalystinthestockisthecompanysfiscalQ1earningsthatarescheduledforJune28thbeforethemarketopen?

Thestockhasbeenahugemoveronearnings,withtheavgmoveoverthelast4qtrsofabout12%and13。

25%over8qtrs(only2moveshigher)?

Theimpliedmoveatthemomentisabout13%,whichseemsfair,butitisimportanttonotethat30dayrealizedvolatilityisat52weeklows(thestockhasnotbeenmoving)?

Chartbelowshowshistoricalorrealizedvol(whiteline)vsimpliedvol(blueline)whichhasrecentlypickuplikelyaresultoftradersgettingfocusedonearnings。

BBRY30dayIVvsHVfromBloomberg

DespitemydisdainfortheirproductsthelowerBBRYgoespriortoearnings,orafterforthatmatter,themoreintriguedIambythestock?

IfthestockcontinuestocreeplowerintoQ1earningsImaybeinclinedtoemployoneofthetake-outstrategiesthatwehavedetailedonthesiteearlierthisyear(hereandhere)?

Theidealscenariowouldbeacapitulationmoveatsomepointsoonthattakesthestockbackto$12support,alsowherethestockstartedtheyear?

Thatstheentrypointonmyradar?