FromTylerDurdenatZeroHedge?

ThisisagoodprimerofwhattoexpectinthenextcoupleofweeksoftheEuromess。

Bookmarkthispageandgobacktoitondayswhenyourewonderingwhythemarketjustmoved5%in10minutes:

ForthosestrugglingunderthedelugeofrelentlessnewsflowoutofEurope,herearethekeyeventstolookforoverthenextmonth,courtesyofCitiFXWire。

ReaderscantakeadvantageoftheweekendwhichwillbecalmuntillateSundaymorningafterwhichitwontbecalm,tofamiliarizethemselveswiththehurricanethatisheadedstraighttoglobalcapitalmarkets。

KeyUpcomingEvents

September9:DeadlineforprivatebondholderstodeclareparticipationinGreekBailout

September9-10:MeetingoftheG7inFrance,Spainvotesonbudgetamendment

September9-14:PotentialresumptionoftheEU/IMFReviewofGreece

September12:MeetingofEUforeignministersinBrussels,ICBreportonUKbanks

September13-15:MeetingofEUfinancialministersinPoland

September16:EurogroupmeetsinPoland

September20:IMF”sLagardetomeetGreekPMPapandreou(Dow)

September29:GermanParliamentvotesonEFSFChanges,Spanishbankdeadlinetomeetnewcapitalizationrequirements

Andthecompletecheatsheet:

GreekSpecifics

Greece’skeyconcernsregardprivatesectorinvolvementinthesecondbail-out,releaseofthenextIMFsupporttranche(EUR8bn),andtheongoingcollateraldebatewithFinland。

Privatesectorinvestorswereduetoindicatetoday(Friday)iftheywillparticipateintheJulybail-outpackage。

Greeceistargeting90%participationrate,raisingEUR135bninfunds。

However,mediareportssuggestthecurrenttakeuprateisaround70%-75%。

IMFmembersareexpectedtoapprovethenexttrancheofGreekaidthismonth。

ButtalksweresuspendedattheendoflastweektogiveAthensmoretimetodemonstrateitismeetingitsfiscaltargets。

Informaltalksmayresumenextweek,whileDowJonesreportsthatIMFchiefLagardewillmeetwithGreece’sPMPapandreouonSeptember20。

TheEUisaskingforafurtherGreekdeficitcutof0。

7%bytheendoftheyeartosecurefurtherfinancing,accordingtoDow。

TheIMFwouldbehappyifAthensjustmetexistingtargets。

CitiEconomicsbelievesinternationallenderswillpushforadditionaltighteningmeasures,whichwouldlikelybeannouncedoverthenext10days。

FinlandhasnotwithdrawndemandsforGreekcollateral。

WedonotexpectanydecisiveprogressonthematterbeforetheEurogroupmeetsonSeptember16。

TheFrenchparliamentapproveditspartinthenewGreekbailoutdealonThursday。

TheEFSFandAusterityMeasures

Germany’sconstitutionalcourtdeclaredEFSF(theEurozoneFinancialStabilityFund)participationconstitutionalonWednesday(September7)。

TheGermanparliamentvotesonSeptember29onproposedchangestotheEFSF;itisexpectedtopass。

Slovakia’sParliamentwilldelayvotingontheEFSFuntilatleastDecember。

Reportssuggestthatthefinancialministerisworkingtospeeduptheprocesshowever,tomeettheinitialOctoberdeadlinesetbyEUofficials。

TheItalianSenateapprovedtheEUR54bnausterityplanlateWednesday(September7)。

TheplannowfacesavoteintheChamberofDeputiesnextweek。

BankRecapitalizationsandOtherIssues

KeyissuesunderconsiderationareEuropeanbankrecapitalization,anewEUfinancialtransactiontaxandEurobonds。

IMFHeadLagarde’scallforanimmediaterecapitalizationofEuropeanbanksdrewastiffrebukefromEuropeanpolicymakers。

ButthesignssuggesttheyaredrawingupactionplansaheadoftheEurogroupmeetingonSeptember16。

ECBPresidentTrichetopposesrecapitalizationefforts。

IncomingPresidentDraghi,whotakesoverinNovember,seeminglybacksTrichet’sstance。

AccordingtounconfirmedreportsonWednesday(September7),theEuropeanCommissionwilldelaytheirbankwrite-downplanforseniorbondholdersinordertopreventfurthermarketpanic。

Anewplan,perhapswithbetterterms,isexpectedasearlyasOctober。

EuropeanCommissionPresidentBarroso,willlikelypushforanewEUfinancialtransactionstax(FTT)attheG20meetinginNovember。

BoththeUKandTrichethavecriticizedthemeasure。

TheUKsaysitwillnotimplementit。

Eurobondsarestillsaidtobeoffthenear-termagenda。

Merkelremainssteadfastlyopposedtosuchameasure,whichwouldnotexactlybeamajorvotewinnerforher。